[MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Merlin Prismriver » 25 Jun 2013 06:13

Mamizou? I certainly didn't expect it to be her, and since nobody's investigating her, I'm thinking none of you thought it to be her either. The traitor might be smarter than I thought... or I might be overthinking this.

I investigated Alice last night, and the result is Innocent. Here's a the result of our investigations so far:

Day 1:
Mamizou said: Alice is a traitor
Alice said: Kotohime is innocent
Kotohime: Koishi is a traitor
Merlin said: Koishi is innocent
Koishi said: Mamizou is innocent

Day 2:
Mamizou died
Alice said: Merlin is innocent
Kotohime said: Alice is innocent
Merlin said: Alice is innocent
Koishi said: Alice is a traitor
---

Assuming Koishi's telling the truth, Alice is the traitor, endgame. But if she is, then...

Koishi: Definitely Sane
Merlin: Definitely Naive
Kotohime: Definitely Insane
Mamizou: Definitely Paranoid

Everything fits. If Koishi's lying (and therefore, traitor) then...

Alice: Definitely Sane
Merlin: Definitely Naive
Kotohime: Definitely Sane
Mamizou: Paranoid

It doesn't fit, therefore this proves that Koishi is innocent and Alice is a traitor. Besides, I don't think a scum would lie her investigation outright before thinking this all over. However, Alice manage to say the exact line of the result PM, which makes her more likely innocent.

Then again, she might be able to adapt it from Kotohime's investigation
Kotohime wrote:"Wait, guys!" Kotohime blurts out, "I've got it! Because... Because I did some 'criminal investigation' last night," she announces, using a creative term for 'Breaking and Entering', "and lookie what I found! This solved everything, right? Just take a look!"

My investigation shows Koishi Komeiji to be a Traitor.

But it would be heck of a gamble, and I don't know if any scum is daring enough to do that.

... Unless she asked Rin what the exact line of the result PM is. It's more of a game mechanic question, so she might get an answer.

Okay, I am overthinking this. If nobody can point out the hole in my logic, I'm going to vote for Alice.
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Kotohime » 25 Jun 2013 16:15

Kotohime bit her lip, looking down. It was hard to believe that was the traitor, but...

She sighed, and nodded. There wasn't anything to say, except,

"This is payback for the market, you daughter of a witch.


NOBODY CROSSES DA KAWPS AND LIVES

(Logic: I'm either sane or insane, as FMPOV I'm clear, so to me, it can't be me, so I must either be sane or insane, and it must be either Alice or Koishi.

1. Alice's first response when she knew she could possibly be Definitely Found Out was deflection.

2. Merlin's logic chart was extremely helpful. Either Koishi and Merlin are working in cahoots, which means Merlin's somehow throwing the game with checkable logic or Koishi's innocent. Merlin (probably) cannot be the traitor, as verified by almost every player in their logic-based accusation of either myself, Koishi, or Alice.

3. Everyone dogpiled on Alice. That means everyone was relatively suspicious.)

It's not ironclad logic, but eh. HERE GOES.

...actually, no. I want to hear maybe one more post before ending the game one way or another.
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Rin Satsuki » 26 Jun 2013 01:19

Vote Count Three
"Wading Through Red Tape" Edition


Alice Margatroid: 0 Votes (Nobody), 0 FoS (Nobody)
Koishi Komeiji: 0 Votes (Nobody), 0 FoS (Nobody)
Kotohime: 0 Votes (Nobody), 0 FoS (Nobody)
Merlin Prismriver: 0 Votes (Nobody), 0 FoS (Nobody)
No Lynch: 0 Votes (Nobody)

With four alive, it takes three to lynch.

Current Deadline: 2400 UTC, Friday 5 July
Deadline Review: 2400 UTC, Monday 1 July
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Merlin Prismriver » 27 Jun 2013 03:19

No one has anything to say yet, really? Well, I just noticed that it's three to lynch, not two, so here goes...

Vote: Alice Margatroid

Yo, Alice, claim up.
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Rin Satsuki » 27 Jun 2013 23:44

Vote Count Four
"Clock is Ticking" Edition


Alice Margatroid: 1 Vote (Merlin), 0 FoS (Nobody)
Koishi Komeiji: 0 Votes (Nobody), 0 FoS (Nobody)
Kotohime: 0 Votes (Nobody), 0 FoS (Nobody)
Merlin Prismriver: 0 Votes (Nobody), 0 FoS (Nobody)
No Lynch: 0 Votes (Nobody)

With four alive, it takes three to lynch.

Current Deadline: 2400 UTC, Friday 5 July
Deadline Review: 2400 UTC, Monday 1 July


Unless activity picks up over the weekend, Friday 5 will be the final deadline.
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Kotohime » 28 Jun 2013 07:08

Buggrit. My head and gut are both in alignment, and I don't want to waste any more time.

Sorry, Alice. But it all fits.

Vote: Alice


(Alternately, we do have another night if we all want to be triple sure.)
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Koishi Komeiji » 28 Jun 2013 16:51

Ah, oop. Did I myself forget to vote?

Vote: Alice.
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Rin Satsuki » 30 Jun 2013 16:53

Day 2 has ended.

Votes for Alice Margatroid were submitted by Merlin Prismriver, Kotohime, and Koishi Komeiji.

Alice Margatroid was lynched at the end of Day 2. She was the traitor.


Okay, two things:
1) this setup has proven itself to be very swingy and also biased towards town, and I am not running it again without significant rework. Minimum.
2) everybody investigating Alice was probably not a coincidence.

(No, I'm not accusing you of cheating)

What was the reason behind that? I'd like to know.
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Alice Margatroid » 30 Jun 2013 17:59

Yeah, as the game wore on I rapidly experienced my options for what lies to do dwindle and diminish and looking at day 2, the only way I could have managed a safe call with all of you investigating me was by calling Koishi out as a traitor. However, if people had gone for no-lynch on day 2, then I don't think there were any possibilities for what to call on day 3.

I didn't initially realize how much information could truly be pulled out of the investigations quickly, so while I did want to avoid having to lie if possible my assessment of it being best not to worry too much with the investigations was also my honest opinion. I know it's wrong now, but it was my belief at the time. Similarly, the paraphrase was for exactly the reasons I gave along with not realizing we were allowed to copy paste, I would have phrased it exactly the same way if I'd been a straight cop and had found someone innocent.

In any case, I'm not really sure it matters and I don't think I had much of a chance the moment you decided to play it safe.
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Mamizou Futatsuiwa » 30 Jun 2013 18:45

If I'm not mistaken, Alice, you targeted me for the NK because of the possibility I was the sane cop, right? It's really unfortunate that turned out not to be the case, it seemed like it ended up really hurting. It was lucky for town, too, because since I was Paranoid but didn't know yet whether I was that or Insane, I was going to try to push to clear you using my second Traitor investigation (on Koishi).

Buuut if Kotohime ferreted out that she was Insane then it would have uncleared you again, so I dunno.
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Alice Margatroid » 30 Jun 2013 19:02

Actually, no. I knew you were paranoid by the end of day one and that Kotohime was insane. I chose you because Koishi was too investigated, Kotohime would draw attention to me because it would be covering my tracks and I wanted to set Merlin up to take the fall. Looking back, I should probably have picked Merlin, but those were my thoughts at the time.
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Merlin Prismriver » 03 Jul 2013 04:18

Yeah, with the investigation mechanic the game is way biased toward town. Either the traitor has to be lucky, able to think of everything, or on the off chance that there's nobody on town that wants to do logic. Doesn't mean it wasn't fun, though. You will not believe how many logic tables I made on Day 1.

Funny thing, I investigated Alice because, with the investigation quote, I considered her confirmed straight cop. In that case she's the one most likely to get killed. I didn't expect it to be the other way around.

Alice Margatroid wrote:Actually, no. I knew you were paranoid by the end of day one and that Kotohime was insane. I chose you because Koishi was too investigated, Kotohime would draw attention to me because it would be covering my tracks and I wanted to set Merlin up to take the fall. Looking back, I should probably have picked Merlin, but those were my thoughts at the time.

Heh. That bombshell accusation on Day 1 was really me trying to do 3 things: Getting reaction from Alice (whom I thought was scum at the time), get activity back up, and putting suspicion on myself, so I will be the one least likely to be killed. Nobody has investigated me, so my death will give very little information.

Why does none of you want to investigate me, though? Both days?
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Re: [MAFIA] Gensokyo P.D

Postby Mamizou Futatsuiwa » 03 Jul 2013 04:27

First day, I investigated Alice because she's the only one I've really seen play Mafia and I know she's a strong player. I knew right away I was likely either Paranoid or Insane, but I decided that for the sake of having some basis of logic, I'd scumhunt (albeit entirely in the wrong direction). The big Phoenix Wright bullcrap post accusing Merlin didn't get much of a reaction out of anyone, which kind of defeated one of the big purposes of it, but Merlin, I still believed the logic I used in it so I investigated on night 2 believing strongly that you were scum.

I felt like investigating you would just confuse the issue, though, whether you came up Innocent or not, so I decided to look at one of the other players to try and confirm their alignment with my investigation instead (under the assumption that I was Insane and thus actually had investigations that could contribute; I'd probably have worked out my sanity the next day, and could go from there, or rather, stop going anywhere from there because it was literally impossible for my investigations to help the town). Koishi was the only player I didn't feel like I had some kind of read on. The wording of the PM and how early Kotohime used it cleared her in my mind, I had an investigation result on Alice that I thought most likely proved her innocent, and I was modestly confident that you were scum.

Obviously most of this didn't matter, haha. I did expect to be the first target from almost the get-go, though. Mostly because I'm, er, bad at lurking under the radar.

I'm curious as to everyone else's overall strategies.
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